Monday, April 6, 2009

UNC vs. MSU

9:02  It all comes down to this.  The spartans and tar heels will face off tonight to decide everything.  Unfortunately I am watching this game from the comfort of my UCONN dorm room.  So what will be the deciding factor tonight?  Will it be the incredibly fast Ty Lawson?  Travis Walton will sure have his work cut out for him.  But what about MSU?  If Raymar Morgan plays the same way he did against the Huskies, he might put up the numbers to get his team a victory.  Also, Detroit has fans like no other.  The home team advantage is more of an advantage in Detroit than anywhere else in the country.  The tar heels are certainly going to have to buckle down and play their defensive game well.  If they don't MSU is going to take advantage.  

9:10  Why are all the female sports reporters really really attractive?  So Tom Izzo, who happens to be in his 14th season as a coach, is scared of the way UNC can run the ball.  He also is telling his team that he wants to save the time outs for late in the game.  

9:13  Wisconsin wins the play of the game award! Thank you Pontiac.  Michigan State seems to be the favorite of the announcers Greg Anthony and Greg Gumble.  I am not so sure I agree with them.  UNC is deadly with the three point shot.  If they get the shots they want tonight, I believe the game is theirs.

9:23 MSU wins the tip off.  Except for that they have to do it again.  UNC wins the next, Dion Thompson puts up a 2 point shot and scores.  MSU replies with a beautiful 3 pointer from Goran Suton. UNC brings it right back with a 2 point shot from Green.  This game is going at a fast pace right now, I find myself having to open the window to get some cool air in here.

9:27 First foul of the game on Roe.  Hansborough gets two shots and makes one.  UNC is now up 8-3 and have started every game in this tournament by getting ahead quick.

9:33 North Carolina is making every shot they take.  They've hit 6 of 7 and look like they are only getting warmed up.  Like I said earlier, if the game continues with UNC getting the shots they want, they look like they will win.  MSU needs to step up the physical play, and close up the gaps a bit more.

9:39 UNC Leads 24-9 but Danny Green just fouled twice in a row.  He needs to avoid  getting into foul trouble early.  The Tar Heels can't afford to lose his 13.3 points a game.

9:49 Ty Lawson makes two free throws to bring his team ahead 26-11.  Thompson sinks a two point shot and sinks the free throw to bring his team ahead 18 points.  He has so far been the best player on the court for the Tar Heels with 9 points, and 2 rebounds.  Kalin Lucas makes a nice 2 point jump shot, followed by a Summers 3 pointer.  The score is 36-16.  One more thing, Ed Davis has 5 rebounds for UNC.  It seems that every time the ball doesn't go in, he is there to take it from the Spartans.  Although they just made a couple good shots, these Spartans are going to have to try and act a bit more like the 300 if they want a victory here tonight. 

10:02 UNC has 20 points in the paint.  MSU has 4.  The score is 38-18.  Morgan takes a hard hit from Green and it seems he may have gotten hit right in the nose.  This is scary, he has been on the ground for a minute now and is feeling his face like someone punched him.  He stands up and takes a seat.  Danny Green of UNC now has 3 fouls.  Allen Misses his free throw.  Ellington makes his next two shots, one of them a 3 point jumper.  UNC now leads 43-20 and they are showing no signs of slowing down.  

10:09 Wayne Ellington just sank another 3 pointer.  He now has 15 points and leads UNC in scoring.  The Tar Heels lead 48-25 at the commercial break.

10:11 That Capital One commercial commits what I find to be the worst crime an advertiser can commit.  I get so involved in the story, I actually do not know what company is advertising.  It took me about three times to finally realize it was a commercial for a credit card company.

10:15  The home team advantage seems to have disappeared.  The crowd seems quiet but as Summers grabs a defensive rebound they seem to perk up a bit.  Izzo needs his team to pick up the pace in the next two minutes or they will be going into the half twenty points behind the Tar Heels

10:21 Wayne Ellington is averaging 19 points per game in this tournament with 50% shooting.  On the other hand, Draymond Green of MSU has 3 fouls and just gave up 2 points to Tyler Hansbrough.  Ellington then slams an uncontested dunk to put a little salt in the wound.  UNC leads 55-34 at the half.  This is the largest halftime lead in championship history...

10:43 The next half starts with a Suton two pointer, and Ty Lawson making two free throws on a foul off of Kalin Lucas.

10:46 Hansbrough sinks his 13th point of the game and brings the Tar Heels ahead 59-36.

10:54  UNC now leads 61-43 but Michigan state has a 7-2 run in the past 4 minutes.

10:59  FG's this period are as follows: Michigan State is 4-10 while UNC is 2/11.  The Spartans need to take advantage of the bad shots North Carolina is taking this half.

11:06  Wayne Ellington leads all scorers with 19 points.  

11:21 There is 7 minutes left in this championship game and the Michigan fans are trying to keep their teams spirits up, but the score is 72-56 in favor of North Carolina.

11:27  Michigan brings the score up to 76-63 and they are now closer to UNC than they have been all second half.

11:34 Michigan has 20 turnovers in the second half.  North Carolina has 7.  

11:39  Summers sinks a crucial 3 pointer.  Michigan is going to have to buckle down in the final 2 minutes if they want to catch up to North Carolina.  The score sits at 84-68.

11:40  Ty Lawson sinks two free throws in a row to bring the score up to 87-70.  The game is all but finished.  The Spartans can't put the ball in the basket with seconds left on the shot clock.

11:47 Final Score 89-72.  North Carolina is officially the best team in college basketball (if you ask me they have been since the first half ended.)

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Michigan State - UConn

So we've made it to the Final Four, and first on the menu is Michigan State vs. Connecticut. Comically, UConn is the home team for this game thanks to their higher seeding. This is going to be a game featuring a pair of teams that have very balanced attacks. I think it's imperative that UConn gets out to a hot start. I can only imagine the last thing they'd want is to be down double digits within the first five minutes; the crowd would be insatiable. My pick is UConn by six, but then again, I'm watching this game from a UConn dormitory, so that's not too much of a surprise.

5:43 p.m.: CBS lets us inside the UConn locker room where Jim Calhoun helpfully points out to his team, "One team is going to win today." I'm relieved we've established this. He's also playing the "Why not us?" card, which is an interestingly cliche choice.

5:48 p.m.: Next we get to see Michigan State's preparations, which are visited by Magic Johnson. Two things stood out to me here: the coaching staff's insistence on keeping UConn guard A.J. Price bottled up on screens and, every time the ball leaves his hand, Izzo implored his team to hit somebody. What doesn't make sense to me is the idea that getting physical with UConn would throw them off of their game. They excelled in the most physical conference in the nation by being super physical. I think, more than anything else, Michigan State needs to shoot the ball well from the perimeter if they're going to win this game.

5:55 p.m.: Kid Rock's pregame narration basically consisted of saying each team's name and stating that they want to win. This is deep stuff, folks. He also looked a lot like a much creepier version of Sawyer from Lost -- with a top hat. But Clark Kellogg and Jim Nantz don't seem phased. This is Kellogg's first time calling a Final Four game. Let's hope he doesn't bring a double order of onions to this one.

6:07 p.m.: We're still introducing the starting lineup as we surpass official tip-off time. What I gathered from the UConn introductions: "AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!"

6:13 p.m.: And the graphic flashes that a 7-2 score (now 9-2) is UConn's largest deficit of the tournament. As I said, this is UConn's worst nightmare, as the Spartans are finding the bottom of the net frequently early on.

6:16 p.m.: Kellogg mentions that UConn's depth is lacking compared to Michigan State's. "Calhoun will probably play seven, maybe seven and a half guys today," Kellogg said. The jury is still out on how exactly Calhoun intends to play half a player.

6:24 p.m.: UConn continues to go inside and owns a 5-1 advantage in team fouls, and with an Adrien hook own a tie at 14. If they can keep Sparty in foul trouble, they can really use their inside presence to their advantage, as Tom Izzo doesn't want to start running out of bodies to put in there to guard the Huskies.

6:35 p.m.: Michigan State is already in a 1-and-1 fouling situation, as UConn has been able to at least temporarily tame the crowd by turning the tide on the boards and conitinuing to bring the ball inside, while Michigan State gave up the lead after a couple of misses. It's clear that when Michigan State isn't hitting jumpers, they're not able to keep up with the Huskies.

6:42 p.m.: Tom Izzo has to be pleased with the way his team is guarding A.J. Price off the high screens. Every time there's even a hint of a screen, one of MSU's big guys races out to the top of the key. Connecticut is settling for a lot of bad shots right now, and the Detroit crowd is starting to get back into this thing.

6:49 p.m.: With 3:30 left in the first half, UConn is playing really sloppy basketball and Michigan State hasn't really been able to take advantage. UConn is falling for an alarming amount of ball fakes and is just not getting anything done offensively. Still, if Michigan State isn't making its jump shots they're going to have a very hard time winning this game.

6:54 p.m.: Michigan State reclaims the lead with a Korie Lucious trey and UConn responds by missing two more free throws, then Kemba Walker fouls Lucious on another 3 point shot. Luscious drains all three and Michigan State is completely outplaying UConn, leading 33-29.

6:58 p.m.: We've got what Jim Nantz referred to four times as "fracas" underneath the basket with Jeff Adrien and Travis Walton. The refs go to the video apparently to check what the weather is going to be like after the game. The good news for Sparty: Adrien is not a good free throw shooter. The bad news: Walton picked up his second foul, and Adrien just made both shots. Walton, Suton, and Ibok all have 2 fouls for Michigan State.

7:02 p.m.: Korie Lucious is on fire, but finally misses a 3 pointer when Thabeet gets a hand in his face. Price steals the rebound, throws the outlet pass to Craig Austrie, who hits a hustling Thabeet in stride for a three point play, tying the score at 36. If that was Hasheem Thabeet in January, that play doesn't happen because he's still laboring at the other end of the floor. Throughout the tournament, though, he's shown a passion for running up and down the floor, and it paid off right there for the #1 seed.

7:05 p.m.: Connecticut falls for another bevy of ball fakes from Delvon Roe and puts in the final basket of the first half, the Spartans holding a 38-36 lead. UConn has to be worried that, despite shooting 50% from the field, they're down at halftime. Michigan State is shooting 39% from the field, but has put up 12 more shots than the Huskies. The Spartans' lead can be attributed to UConn making only 8 of 13 free throws and turning the ball over 8 times. If UConn wants to win this game, they absolutely have to shape up their sloppy play and their free throw shooting. Ultimately, however, I still feel that if Michigan State is making jump shots, the game is theirs. Whenever they went on a cold spurt, UConn dominated.

7:29 p.m.: UConn gets off to a nice start to pull ahead by 4, but Stanley Robinson quickly picks up his third foul and Sparty responds with a made jumper. Both teams then trade baskets. UConn replaces Robinson with Kemba Walker, who has played very poorly so far coming off his huge game against Missouri.

7:31 p.m.: Goran Suton picks up a third foul of his own. A lot of people had Suton being the difference in this game, but he has been virtually unheard from all night.

7:35 p.m.: Kemba Walker is playing a big role in this game, but not the kind UConn would like. He's 0-for-4 from the charity stripe, has a handful of turnovers, and isn't exactly playing the world's best defense against Michigan State's guards. He's got to step it up for Connecticut.

7:42 p.m.: Every time Thabeet tries to fight through the lane on an in-bounds pass, it looks like a three man offensive line is committing a blatant holding penalty for Michigan State. They've got three guys with 3 fouls, which could be a problem later in the game, but right now, in this back and forth game, Michigan State is getting a ton of easy buckets and has a 51-49 advantage.

7:49 p.m.: The lead is 55-51 for the Spartans as the game heads to a TV timeout, and really it shouldn't even be that close. Outside of the first 10 minutes of the first half, UConn's offense hasn't really been able to get into a flow, and at times it looks like they're not even trying. Michigan State is trying hard on defense, is banging the offensive boards, and is getting to every loose ball -- they're just plain playing and hustling harder than the Huskies.

7:57 p.m.: Michigan State has 7 team fouls now, but they aren't really in foul trouble, as they've somehow managed to spread out their fouls this half. They now have five guys with 3 fouls.

8:01 p.m.: With 7:08 remaining UConn is on the verge of going down double digits. They've yet to show life at any point in this half, and are getting absolutely killed on the offensive boards. Michigan State is getting up a lot more quality shots, and is in complete control of this game.

8:06 p.m.: Durrell Summers' "dunk" over Stanley Robinson is going to be all over the highlight reels, but in reality it was a lucky shot. Robinson blocked it clean, and the ball rolled off of his hands into the basket. Nothing is going right for UConn and they're down 10 with 5:30 to go.

8:10 p.m.: My Facebook status with 5:00 left: "Oh well, good season, UConn. Too bad you guys got absolutely throttled in the Final Four." And I'm the last person to give up on my team. That really tells a lot about just how thoroughly Michigan State has dominated the Huskies. Just as they pull within 6, Sparty hits a 3 and gets an uncontested dunk despite the fact that two of their players failed to get downcourt to play defense. It's all Michigan State in this one.

8:21 p.m.: UConn pulls to within 8 on a pair of Kemba Walker free throws -- free throws they probably could've used all the other times he went to the line, too. They do a nice job trapping in the corner and forces a timeout. The way this game has gone, it wouldn't be far-fetched to see Michigan State drill another trey here to put this game away.

8:24 p.m.: Price makes a nice layup in the lane and Hasheem Thabeet gets fouled on the rebound, but he can't stay in to make the free throws. Craig Austrie comes into the game to shoot Thabeet's free throws -- this also happened in UConn's home game against Notre Dame. Just as he did then, Austrie buries both free throws and suddenly it's a four point game.

8:25 p.m.: Kemba Walker continues his rather poor outing by making a rookie mistake and fouling Kalin Lucas from 30 feet out. It's a 1-and-1 and he hits the first. 74-69 MSU with 1:15 to go. Robinson responds with a thunderous dunk. Sparty responds with a huge play by Summers, in which he is fouled 8 feet away from the basket on both his feet. The refs curiously don't call the foul on the floor; Summers makes the basket and completes the three point play.

8:30 p.m.: After getting to within 4, the UConn rally seems like it's about to fall short. A few crucial questionable calls have all gone the Spartans' way here in the final minute, including Summers' basket and a couple of shots from A.J. Price that went up in the midst of substantial contact; no fouls were called. It's as if Ford Field would not let its team give the game away.

8:32 p.m.: Kemba Walker caps off his disappointing night by blowing an easy layup from point blank range. UConn is forced to foul and with 14 seconds this game is basically wrapped up.

8:35 p.m.: Jim Calhoun said he wanted the game to be played into the 80s, but I'm sure he'd certainly like to retract that statement as the final buzzer sounds. Michigan State wins 82-73. The Spartans' outplayed the Huskies on loose balls and really buckled down on defense in the second half. UConn was plagued by several things, most notably their long period of lackidasical play in the second half, their poor free throw shooting, and the ball's preference to bounce Michigan State's way every time they needed it to. It was a hard fought game, and the team that wanted it more today prevailed.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Chalk It Up to Coaching


This year's men's Final Four is starting to look more and more like it could bear a striking resemblance to the 2008 version of college basketball's most sought after destination. The 2009 Sweet 16 has retained the tournament's top 12 seeds (a first), and the only real surprise on the list is 12 seed Arizona. You know, Arizona, the 1997 national champ and a program with 4 Final Four appearances.

As we get deeper and deeper into the tournament, the prospect of having all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four in consecutive seasons doesn't look so unlikely. Curiously, however, some feel like making history twice would be old news. ESPN.com's Pat Forde recently wrote an article lamenting that "the rich and powerful always take over by the Final Four, but this year they've assumed command earlier than ever," and "it's just too bad none of the rifraff sneaked through the gates."

That rifraff, of course, refers to the beloved Cinderella teams that are devoid of this year's tournament. Fans of the underdog have been spoiled in recent years with the likes of George Mason and Davidson, and are seemingly expecting at least one undermatched team to push past the perennial heavyweights.

Unfortunately, those pesky underdogs haven't been able to close the deal this year. Cleveland State gave us what could be the biggest upset of the tournament in the first round, and Siena certainly looked like a contender to wear the slipper, but not a single team was able to close the deal. No. 1 seeds Pitt and Louisville both looked on the verge of being toppled during the first weekend, but they, along with several other major conference teams, were able to keep the ship afloat into the regional rounds.

My question is, "What's so wrong with good teams being good?" Instead of frowning about the lack of upsets, maybe we should be applauding the selection committee for seeding the tournament in a way that allowed the cream to rise to the top. That is, after all, the committee's job. Maybe we should be applauding these players for playing at the level they're capable of and coming through with big plays when their teams needed it most.

Maybe, more than anything else, we should be applauding these 16 coaches for doing their job as well as they have. As Forde also pointed out in his piece, seven coaches with national titles are still in contention to add to their resumes: Rick Pitino of Louisville, Bill Self of Kansas, Tom Izzo of Michigan State, Jim Calhoun of Connecticut, Mike Krzyzewski of Duke, Roy Williams of North Carolina and Jim Boeheim of Syracuse. Don't forget John Calipari, who led Memphis to the title game last March. These coaches have earned their salaries this season, even if Calhoun's, in particular, has been questioned on the way here.

And I think that's the real reason we're seeing so much chalk this year in the big dance. Think about it: for all their talk about how parity in college basketball is a good thing, does anybody really believe any of these coaches actually want and welcome the mid-majors of the world into their domain? Does anybody really think, for instance, that Krzyzewski is OK with Duke's early exits the two seasons because it suggests greater parity in the sport? It's more likely that these coaches have probably said to themselves somewhere along the line "I don't want that to happen to us," and have consequently pushed themselves and their players harder to get the desired results.

Well, that hard work is finally paying off this year. And even though today's coaches might not be drawing up their plays or brainstorming with the chalk of yesteryear, they're certainly responsible for producing so much of it this March.

Monday, March 16, 2009

2009 NCAA Tournament


The brackets are out and that means only one thing: a bunch of people feeding you their own opinions and picks on the tournament -- picks that, in all likelihood, aren't even going to be close to what actually happens. So why should this blog be any different?

In the interest of time and length, I'm going to spare you my entire bracket and give you my Elite 8 and go from there.

Midwest

(1) Louisville
As does basically the rest of the entire nation, I've got Louisville coasting through the first three rounds. This team is the top overall seed in the tournament for good reason. As you may have heard, they won the Big East regular season and conference tournament, which is no small feat. Better still, they have the least amount of holes and the most balanced team in the field. Not surprising, considering their leader, Terence Williams, is a jack of all trades. No matter who they draw in the second and third rounds, it's hard picturing a regional final round without Louisville.

(3) Kansas
I'm going with last year's National Champs eliminating the 2 seed Michigan State in the Sweet 16; it's more or less a gut feeling. Michigan State has started to grow a reputation for putting together strong seasons and then taking an early exit from the dance. Since 2002, they've had 3 first round exits and a second round loss. Meanwhile, Kansas has certainly done well for a team not even ranked in the Top 25 at the beginning of the season. This team is young and talented but with that youth comes a lack of experience. Bill Self has done a wonderful job with this squad and should be ecstatic with his program's outlook over the next handful of years. That being said, this is a Louisville team with experience AND superior talent. They'll be moving on to Detroit.

Winner: Louisville

West

(1) Connecticut
With Jerome Dyson around, this team was the closest thing we had to an undisputed #1 this season. Unfortunately he won't be around for the dance, which makes the water a bit murkier for the Huskies. Since his season-ending injury in the opening moments of their home game against Syracuse, UConn is 5-3 (including their win against the Orange). Before his injury they were 22-1. Granted, their three losses were a pair to Pitt and that Big East tournament game you might have heard about. That's a stark difference, and for good reason. Dyson provided Jim Calhoun with a second legitimate perimeter threat on offense, and he was their best perimeter defender. Kemba Walker has filled in well, but he's not on Dyson's level at this point. Whether UConn stands a chance at getting back to the Final Four depends largely on whether or not the team can find a way to make up for his absence...and maybe make a few more free throws. So far, they haven't been able to do either.

(3) Missouri
The popular opinion going into the tournament is that Memphis is playing the best basketball of any team in the nation. That's easy to do when you're playing in Conference USA. I'm not taking anything away from John Calipari, who has once again done a phenomenal job with a very young, raw group of guys, but I just don't think their regular season schedule could have really prepared them well enough for this type of competition. Missouri, the Big 12 Champion, can match them on the full oourt press. I don't believe Memphis can say the same about its C-USA counterparts. Still, if UConn can get back to the way they played in February, I can't find it in me to put Missouri, Memphis, or anybody else in the West over them into the Final Four.

Winner: Connecticut

East

(1) Pittsburgh
At times Pitt can look like a world beater. At times they can also look like the world can beat them. The Panthers' biggest problems are very similar to problems the UConn could face in the tournament. Like Connecticut, Pittsburgh has stretches where, for whatever reason, they just can't score. Also, when Hasheem Thabeet gets into foul trouble, UConn is a totally different team. He and Dejuan Blair are birds of a feather. Put Blair on the bench and Pittsburgh becomes a lot less intimidating. However, while I think if they meet Florida State in the Sweet 16 there's a chance at an upset, that chance is slight.

(2) Duke
I very nearly went with Villanova over Duke in the Sweet 16, but you've gotta love the way Duke is playing right now. Villanova and Duke match up pretty evenly but I like Duke because, well, they're Duke. The last four times the Blue Devils have won the ACC tournament, they've bowed out in the Sweet 16, but I think they're ready to buck that trend. After all, Coack K already bucked a trend in the summer Olympics, so why can't he do it in an environment he's far more familiar with?

That being said, I don't think Duke matches up well with Pittsburgh at all. The Blue Devils don't have anybody that can stop Dejuan Blair on the inside. The only way they can stop him is if they commit more than one guy to keeping him in check. If they do that, you can look for Sam Young to have a field day getting the ball on the perimeter and driving to the basket. Just ask Connecticut. At the end of the day, Pittsburgh will reach its first Final Four since 1941.

Winner: Pittsburgh

South

(1) North Carolina
Who really doesn't have the Tar Heels making it at least this far? They've got a chance to run away with this thing if they play up to potential and, truth be told, all they really need to achieve that potential is for Ty Lawson to be healthy. If he doesn't, they could be in for some trouble, but even then, there's not much in their way of getting this far regardless.

(2) Oklahoma
Syracuse is also a popular pick here, but Oklahoma has something that the Orange don't: Blake Griffin. Syracuse has struggled with the Big East's best big men all year. They couldn't handle Earl Clark or Greg Monroe, Luke Harangody was even better, and Blair and Thabeet dominated the Cuse as well. The scary part is Blake Griffin is better than all of them, so I can only imagine what he might be capable of against Syracuse. Furthermore, Oklahoma looked like a #1 seed all season long and will probably on a mission to prove their detractors wrong.

In this matchup, though, North Carolina just has too much talent. Blake Griffin may be the best player in the nation, but we've seen what can happen to Oklahoma even when Griffin IS in the lineup. Against a superior group of talent and a proven winner in Roy Williams, I don't see Griffin and the Sooners moving on.

Winner: North Carolina

Final Four
Yes, I have a chalk Final Four, which doesn't usually happen with my brackets. It's very likely that this scenario doesn't play out, but in my bracket there is no team that would play one of these #1 seeds in the regional finals that I like a lot better. Memphis, for example, I believe would have a great shot at beating UConn in the Elite 8. The problem is, they'd have to get there first, and I think Missouri would beat them. Anyway, let's move on before I start an argument with myself.

Louisville vs. Connecticut
In their regular season matchup, UConn marched into Freedom Hall and pounded the Cardinals by 17, 68-51. That win came just hours after the Huskies had been crowned the #1 team in the nation for the first time this season. I'm hearing a lot of talk about how UConn won that game mostly because they had Jerome Dyson at the time and that, if the two teams played again, the outcome would be a lot different. Nobody seems willing to mention that the real reason UConn won that game had very little to do with Dyson, and a heck of a lot more to do with Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet. The two combined for 32 points and 18 boards, with Thabeet adding 4 blocks and forced countless altered shots. UConn shot 24 free throws, Louisville just 2 foul shots. The Huskies' dominance inside was so pronounced that eventually Louisville's offense ran strictly around the perimeter, jacking up 17 shots from downtown. They rarely even took a shot in the paint, let alone scored. Also, UConn won by 17 with Stanley Robinson laying an egg on offense. Robinson, needless to say, is a far better player now than he was on Groundhog's Day. I don't think Connecticut wins by double digits, but unless Louisville has a definitive answer for UConn's presence down low, I see the Huskies advancing.

Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
Usually in matchups where there are two All-American guys in the paint, the game winds up coming down to whose guards are better. With a healthy Ty Lawson, he and Wayne Ellington are far better than Levance Fields and Jermaine Dixon. North Carolina may not be the best defensive team, but those two guys, along with Danny Green and Deon Thompson, can score in bunches -- something Pittsburgh is known to struggle with from time-to-time. If Pittsburgh can keep up with North Carolina on the scoreboard, I can see the Panthers wearing the Heels down on the defensive end, but somehow, with such an experienced cast led by Tyler Hansborough, the Heels should find themselves in the championship game.

Connecticut vs. North Carolina -- National Championship
Two storied programs; one Hall of Fame coach and one future Hall of Fame coach; Hasheem Thabeet vs. Tyler Hansborough; Ty Lawson vs. A.J. Price. There's a lot to like about this matchup, and I think CBS would absolutely love this matchup for their own purposes. This is about as titanic as a matchup you'd find in an NCAA Final just based on reputation alone. Add in the fact that you've got a high octane offense going against a powerful defense and you've got yourself one heck of a game on paper. However, I think North Carolina would win this game on the strength of their transition offense and their leader, Tyler Hansborough.

As good as UConn is on defense, they've got one weakness that Jim Calhoun is usually able to boast as a strength: scoring and defending in transition. The championship teams of the past for UConn were built on running the floor. This team is better suited for a halfcourt game. If North Carolina can push the ball up the floor like they're capable of doing, they should either see a lot of easy baskets or draw some fouls.

And then there's Psycho-T. Thabeet is a great defender, but Hansborough has been around the game a lot longer and has plenty of experience performing well on a big stage. He's not as impressive a physical specimen as Thabeet or Jeff Adrien, but he's got more saavy and more know-how than anybody else playing for Connecticut. It would be the ultimate way for one of the best college basketball players of all time to go: a champion.

National Champion: North Carolina

Sunday, February 22, 2009

A-Rod's Numbers Don't Lie



The talking heads are already calling 2009 the season of Alex Rodriguez, and I guess I'd have to agree with them. This might just wind up being the biggest steroids revelation of them all: arguably the greatest all-around player of all time was injected with performance enhancing drugs from 2001 to 2003 right after signing the most lavish contract the world had ever seen. It doesn't really get any bigger than that.

For the most part, A-Rod's criticism has been harsh, and rightfully so. However, while most felt obligated to go the opposite way, I had to agree with the voters that recently got together and decided that Rodriguez should keep the MVP award he won in 2003. They didn't really offer up a viable reason for their decision other than "He won it and that's that," so allow me to subject my own reason to the decision.

I'm no A-Rod apologist, but the man's numbers don't lie. Honestly, whatever drugs he took for those three seasons in Texas, I don't think they made that much of an impact on his performance. I believe that, even if he hadn't taken any type of drug, he would have been perfectly capable of the numbers he put up.

Rodriguez's averages for those seasons are as follows: a .305 batting average, 52 home runs, 132 runs batted in, 127 runs scored, 15 stolen bases, a .615 slugging percentage, and an OPS of 1.011. Excluding his first two professional seasons, in which he played a combined 65 games, he averaged .314, 37 homers, 115 RBIs, 122 runs, 25 steals, a .576 slugging percentage, and a .956 OPS during his career in Seattle.

The only astronomical differences between his Seattle and Texas numbers are the outputs in home runs and RBIs, which are usually high on MVP voters' priority lists, and most often the ones that net today's players their many millions. One could argue that his increase in OPS is significant as well, but it's not unreasonable to attribute that to a player's natural learning curve. It takes time for any player to get a better feel for the strike zone, know which pitches he can hit more successfully, how to work counts, etc. Keep in mind, A-Rod's Texas career was comprised of his ages 26-28 seasons, typically when a player is entering his prime.

So why the spike in home runs and RBIs? Those that want to take Rodriguez down and discredit him will immediately attribute these numbers to the PEDs his cousin apparently injected him with. In my opinion, these are a result of both A-Rod's maturation as a hitter and the fact that he played the majority of his games in the silo masquerading as The Ballpark at Arlington.

Simply put, the stadium is a launching pad. I spent a good chunk of my childhood watching games at Shea Stadium, a prime example of a pitcher's park. I've also attended a game at The Ballpark at Arlington. I can tell you first hand that its dimensions don't tell the full story: the playing field is significantly smaller, and I find it hard to believe a player of A-Rod's caliber wouldn't be able to take advantage of that.

So let's play a little game. I'm going to put two players' stats in front of you, and you identify the players.

Player A: .332, 29, 73, 71, .666, 1.082
Player B: .278, 23, 59, 57, .564, .938

Done researching? Fantastic! Put your pens and pencils down. So who were they?

Player A is A-Rod's averages playing at home from '01-'03, while Player B is A-Rod playing on the road during the same period. His home statistics are significantly better across the board, which should come as no surprise. While Player B is a star caliber player when projected over a 162 game season, Player A is in a class of his own, which is essentially what Rodriguez was during his three years in Texas and continues to be to this day.

Compare those splits to his home-road splits in a Yankee uniform and you get the following comparison:

Home: .313, 22, 68, 62, .600, 1.004
Road: .292, 20, 56, 57, .545, .943

Again, Rodriguez was better at home, but the differences aren't nearly as dramatic. More importantly, from 2001 to 2008, A-Rod's averages on the road are remarkably similar. It's his success in Texas compared to New York where the key difference lies. On average, his batting average was 19 points higher, he hit 6 more home runs and drove in 5 more runs, he scored 9 more runs, he slugged 66 points higher, and his OPS was 78 points higher in Texas than in New York.


We're not talking about his overall averages as a Ranger compared to those as a Yankee. We're talking about just how much better the man was when he played in Arlington, Texas than when he's played in the House that Ruth Built. It's like comparing Jessica Alba to, say, Mandy Moore. Sure, they're both hot, but you know which one you'd rather have if you had to pick.

It's also worth noting here that during his Rangers career Rodriguez missed EXACTLY ONE GAME. In the 486 games that his team played over those three seasons, he played in 485 of them! That is one detail that cannot be overlooked. Basic logic follows that the more you play, the better chance you have at putting numbers up on the board. This tends to be especially true of players as capable of Mr. Rodriguez.

There's no denying that the man made a mistake, and he certainly deserves the criticsm that's only just begun to come his way. All I'm saying is that Alex Rodriguez is the type of talent we rarely get to see in all of sports, not just baseball. Whoever judges him should not be so fast to call his numbers into question. We can say he cheated, we can call him a liar, but we can also argue that his performance enhanced seasons weren't so dramatically enhanced that he does not deserve recognition for them.

If we're going to cast him out of the Hall of Fame, regard him the way we regard Pete Rose today. Condemn the man for what he did off the field, not for what he did on it.

Mission Statement

The title seems pretty self-explanatory, doesn't it? Well, if we have to be honest with ourselves, we know this kind of blog is the kind of blog that you see thousands of all over the internet. What makes our different? We're not sure...yet.

This is going to be our first real effort at this, so bare with us. I don't think it'd be a stretch to say that it might take us some time to get over our biases and write objectively about teams and/or players that we would otherwise simply heap praise onto or bash without mercy.

However, our blog is going to contain a mix of sports reporting, opinion pieces, editorials, columns -- the whole nine yards, in other words. Along the way, we hope to provide those that read this with an insight into the sports world and, of course, some entertainment.